What is to be done?

•March 21, 2014 • 2 Comments

NASA recently released a report with some dire warnings. Natural and social scientists developed a new model which suggests that a ‘perfect storm’ of crises could unravel global social and economic systems.

This article has been passed around the Internet and caused a friend of mine to react in dismay:

  “…on a personal level, what do you all DO with this information? I’m asking in all sincerity and not really looking to debate. [I’m} just trying to wrap my head around how to keep moving forward, raising my little family, while still trying to make conscious choices about our impact on the environment. but not feeling like it really even matters at this rate….”

It is easy to despair at such news. We feel small and the problem feels huge. Our political leaders do not inspire confidence and seem focused on defending the profits of large Wall Street and Energy companies while the world falls apart around us. Does it matter? Is there anything we as individuals can do? Yes, there is a lot that we can do on both the political and personal levels.

On the political level there is much that needs to be done. I live in central Virginia which has been a nexus of climate change denial and preservation of inequality. We have a long way to go and much hard work that needs to be done. However, it is important that everybody everywhere do what they can. First of all, talk to your neighbors about these problems. The news media keeps us distracted with a disappearing Malaysian airliner and celebrity gossip. People need to know what is going on. It seems like small steps but they build over time. Join local grassroots activist groups. Invite speakers to talk about these issues in community forums. Work to support politicians that address these issues.

On the personal level there are also many small things that you can to reduce consumption. They add up if done by many people over time. Here are a few ideas. They are focused on global warming, but in practice address most environmental problems which are derived from waste and over-consumption. I’m sure you are already doing some, others you might have missed:

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/wycd/

http://environment.about.com/od/globalwarming/tp/globalwarmtips.htm

•February 27, 2014 • Leave a Comment

If scientific accuracy in the public sphere is your jam, is there really that much of a difference between Creation Museum founder Ken Ham, who seems to have made a career marketing pseudoscience about the origins of the world, and John Mackey, a founder and CEO of Whole Foods Market, who seems to have made a career, in part, out of marketing pseudoscience about health?
Michael Schulson “Whole Foods: America’s Temple of Pseudoscience”

This is not just a problem for the left or right. This is a basic function of how our brains (and social networks) function. We can’t know everything so we use heuristics. Much of what we believe is based not on fact, experience or scientific evidence but on what others believe. For people who trust the right it is denial of climate change and evolution. On the left it’s nutriceuticals and colon cleanses. The facts are often secondary to building social networks and support. From a basic survival perspective it is more important to bond with your local group than understand if the sun revolves around the earth or vise versa.

On the right, denial of climate change and evolution is clearly wrong, but dogmatic acceptance of market economics and deregulation frequently lead to outcomes that undermine other, more essential, conservative values.

Similarly, on the left, Organic and GMO crops are accepted or rejected without any understanding of context or distinctions. While there are great benefits from most organic growing practices there are times where small farm, local, non-organic are better. Similarly with GMOs, rapidly becoming the tobacco and DDT of the twenty-first century. But not all GMOs pose the same risk to health and society. Golden rice can prevent vitamin deficiencies that cause death and blindness in millions worldwide yet has none of the potential health concerns associated with other GMOs.

These social heuristics can be useful in a complex world. Yet, too often they get in the way of clearly sorting out complex open issues because we view them as a credo and not a hypothesis.

 

Healthcare in US and France

•January 11, 2014 • Leave a Comment

radCAB67

In the United States, at least 9% of school-aged children have been diagnosed with ADHD, and are taking pharmaceutical medications. In France, the percentage of kids diagnosed and medicated for ADHD is less than .5%. How come the epidemic of ADHD—which has become firmly established in the United States—has almost completely passed over children in France?
–Marilyn Wedge “Why French Kids Don’t Have ADHD”

It is not that French children are different than American children. It is that the French approach diagnosis and treatment in a different way. In the US we focus on effects, so we look at symptoms and diagnose disorders. The French are more interested in cause and context. ADHD is not part of their CFTMEA (Classification Française des Troubles Mentaux de L’Enfant et de L’Adolescent). Their children have similar problems and struggles. They just think and talk about them differently.

“The French classification system supports labor and resource-intensive diagnostic and treatment practices, and such an approach is well-suited for a country with a universal health-care system, which covers the majority of medical costs. Conversely, such a labor-intensive approach would not find the same support in America’s managed care system, which deliberately seeks to curtail access to medical resources in general, and labor-intensive practices in particular.”
–Manuel Vallée “Resiting American Psychiatry”

The French approach to health care is radically different than the US. France has a multi-payer system and it works really well for them. US also has a multi-payer system but it does not work as well.

In France they believe that those who are most sick should get the best health care and that no person should be without access. In the US we believe the most deserving (those with the most money) should have the best care and the least deserving (the least money) should get little or no care.

In France they pay closer attention to context, social and environmental factors, which make for more complex, lengthier and more expensive treatments. The US system is focused on the rapid dispensing of medicine (drugs) and treatments (technology) and our symptom-focused diagnostic reflects that.

Universal coverage with lengthy and complex treatments is very expensive and France has one of the most expensive health care systems in the world. Yet many rate the French system the best in the world and the cost per person is less than half what it is in the US.

#HasJustineLandedYet

•December 22, 2013 • 2 Comments

Justine-Sacco

“Justine Sacco, a PR executive who found herself at the centre of a Twitter firestorm after posting a racist “joke”, has lost her job and been forced to apologize as a result of the scandal.

The now-former director of corporate communications at media company IAC was about to board a plane to South Africa when she tweeted: “Going to Africa. Hope I don’t get AIDS. Just kidding. I’m white!”

Despite Ms Sacco only having around 200 followers, the message quickly spread to online news organizations, with social media users around the world expressing their disgust.

The irony of a supposed public relations expert tweeting such an insensitive comment, and the fact it could not be corrected during a 12-hour flight without an internet connection, meant the hashtag #HasJustineLandedYet was soon trending on the social media site.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/news/pr-executive-justine-sacco-apologises-after-losing-job-over-racist-aids-joke-provoked-hasjustinelandedyet-twitter-storm-9020809.html

 A young attractive woman with a relatively important and high profile job is ruined in a few hours for a largely ironic but utterly tasteless comment to less than 200 Twitter followers. (I’m sure some of you have pets with more followers.) By the time she lands in Cape Town she has become internet famous and unemployed.

Justine-Sacco2

Everyone is offended by her Tweet and feels that her firing was unfortunate but deserved. As a PR exec she “should have known better.”

Yet just a few weeks earlier we had another incident involving Twitter and an airplane. Bachelor producer Elan Gale tweeted to thousands of followers about assaulting Diane, a rude woman on his pre-Thanksgiving plane, with relentless obscene sexual invective.

Screen Shot 2013-12-26 at 5.31.31 PM

This time everyone passed it around as hilarious.  There was no outrage. Thankfully it was a hoax, but I didn’t see a single comment that he should loose HIS job.

Screen Shot 2013-12-26 at 5.08.11 PM

The whole thing seems rather misogynist to me. Yes, Ms. Sacco’s comment was racist and in bad taste but Elan Gale’s was extremely sexist, in bad taste and obscene. Both became the internet sensation of the day largely due to their promotion on Buzzfeed. What seems to be the big difference is that one was a woman in a position of responsibility and the other was at the expense of woman in a position of responsibility.

Witold Rybczynski: A conversation about architecture

•December 11, 2013 • 2 Comments
Villa Pisani in Leoni from Palladio

Villa Pisani in Leoni from Palladio (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Focus & Attention
Architecture is a backdrop to our lives. It is rarely viewed with the focus and attention that we use with plays, novels or paintings. We glimpse a feature and think, “how nice that somebody actually thought of that.”

Distracted art
We see a play once, maybe twice, but we may see a building daily for many years. A building may remain in use for a hundred years or more, even in a consumer society that throws everything away. Most hundred-year-old things are viewed as antiques or historical curiosities and placed in museums but we live in hundred-year-old buildings. It is still “of our time.” And it will be of somebody else’s time further down the road.

The canon
Like literature, architecture has a canon. A well-designed building is not replaced in the way we replace a well-designed phone or computer or elevator. It remains in the canon as we continue to add new additions to it.

Preservation
Public buildings need public support. It is hard to get behind the presentation of Brutalism from forty years ago, constructed of so much concrete. It costs money to preserve a building so you have to really like it to keep it.

Symmetry
Symmetry is a useful tool. It is powerful and has a long tradition. We shouldn’t throw things out that have build up a value.

Empirical, not theoretical
Architecture, like engineering, is based on trial and error. If it works we repeat it. It is a much more frequent practice than creating buildings motivated by a kind of theory. Experience almost always triumphs over theory.

The best architecture
The best architecture is when the architect faces seemingly intractable problems, solves them and creates something that is very satisfying. When a building’s roof leaks, it is not very satisfying—no matter how aesthetically pleasing it may seem.

Andrea Palladio, "Quattro libri dell´arch...

Andrea Palladio, “Quattro libri dell´architettura”, issue 1642. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Canadian architecture
Canadian architecture is very conservative because the climate is so harsh and unforgiving. Water will get into any flaws, freeze and break them apart. You would be insane to experiment too much. In warmer, more forgiving climates you can try stranger and more unusual things. Las Vegas is a perfect example.

How buildings learn
In his book How Buildings Learn, Stuart Brand points out that you cannot set out to design a building that anticipates it’s future use, but there are some buildings that are more successful in doing this than others.

Theory
I don’t really have an argument. If there is an argument it’s that there are many ways to make a building. The theory, if you will, is that we should appreciate a broader range of buildings. If you understand what an architect is trying to do, what problems he is trying to solve, you can better appreciate what he does.

 

 

 

Major Federal IT failures–not where you think they are

•November 7, 2013 • 1 Comment

The highly partisan House Energy and Commerce Committee has been investigating the issues with Healthcare.gov, a major government IT project and the public face of the Affordable Care Act. As they describe it in their own words: 

“the full committee will hear from HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius in an effort to understand what led to the botched rollout of the health law after the administration repeatedly told the committee everything was “on track.” The hearing – PPACA Implementation Failures: Answers from HHS – will seek answers to better understand the failures, who is responsible, and when or if the administration recognized the challenges that lay ahead.”

http://energycommerce.house.gov

This has been widely reported and right-wing pundits are having a field day. As this typical example from Fox News shows.

That sad thing, not widely reported, is that this  “failure” should not have been a surprise and is pretty much the norm. 94% of Federal IT projects larger that $10 million fail to arrive on time and within budget. In fact, many of these projects are never completed and are eventually abandoned. Why doesn’t HECC investigate these projects? There are a couple reasons. One is that there are just too many of them.  Another demonstrates the clearly partisan nature of the current investigation.

If the House really wanted to investigate bad software projects (instead of presiding over a politically motivated witch hunt) they would have to start with the military. The US military is  the world’s top consumer of expensive failed software projects.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/253038/watchdog_agency_report_shows_beleaguered_state_of_us_military_software_projects.html

There are higher priority projects to look into if Congress wants to get into the business of IT oversight, like this billion dollar failure for the Air Force:

http://www.itbusinessedge.com/blogs/governance-and-risk/lessons-from-a-billion-dollar-project-failure.html

Or this FBI project whose cost overruns alone are almost as 2/3 the entire cost of Heathcare.gov:

http://strategicppm.wordpress.com/2010/04/05/the-fbis-virtual-case-file-project-and-project-failure/

Before you suggest the common news media talking point–that the common thread is that these are all government projects–I need to point out that almost all of those projects were executed by private contractors rather than internal government IT departments.

The Department of Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service, on the other hand,  handle much of their own IT and they seem to be doing a very good job. In fact the IRS has one of the best IT programs anywhere, public or private. For a peek into some of their work take a look at example: http://www.irs.gov/pub/newsroom/mvs-10-07.pdf

A Great Example of Segmentation

•November 4, 2013 • Leave a Comment

Working in an Agile environment we are often focused primarily on rapid and LEAN research–but sometimes the good old-fashioned kind leads to some very exciting results like this recent segmentation the Benenson Strategy Group did for Esquire and NBC.

They asked 2,400 people to answer a 137-question survey and used a k-means algorithm to form clusters of values, attitudes and demographics. They used the most clearly differentiated results as the basis for their segments. I have used these techniques frequently in the past and the results can be quite powerful and useful.

Esquire-Segmentation

Below are some links to the research but if you have a chance take a look at the November 2013 issue of Esquire magazine for a full description of the segments.

The online version of the Esquire article
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/new-american-center-1113

The online NBC article
http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/15/20960588-the-new-american-center-why-our-nation-isnt-as-divided-as-we-think?lite

A shorter, 29-question version of their original survey that you can take yourself.
http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/15/20977799-quiz-are-you-a-member-of-the-new-american-center

The complete 137 question survey and their results:
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBCEsquireSurvey.pdf

Benenson Strategy Group (BSG) Press Release
http://www.bsgco.com/main/newsID/148/do/news_detail

 
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